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AI & Judgement - edition 23
The machine creates the first draft. You still have to decide.
The concerning question about AI is "will it replace me?" The more useful question for commercial leaders is "what exactly is it raising the need for?"
The answer, from three separate 2026 studies, is judgement. HBR's July 2026 research finds generative AI isn't hollowing out the need for expertise. It's raising the threshold for it. As routine output gets automated, the premium shifts to the people who can direct and challenge the machine. MIT Sloan (July 2026, drawing on Thomas Davenport) makes the same case from the other side: as AI floods every channel with plausible, low-cost content, the scarce and defensible asset becomes human judgement. Weighing values, reading relationships, and making effective decisions when the data runs out.
A workflow problem, not a tools problem
McKinsey's 2026 Global B2B Pulse (nearly 4,000 decision-makers across 13 countries) found 60% of market leaders posting double-digit growth against just 21% of laggards. The separator wasn't access to AI. Everyone has that. It was the willingness to rebuild how people actually work around it. Buying the tool is table stakes. The edge is in the judgement to use it well.
And there's a warning in the data. DDI's 2026 leadership trends flag "quiet cracking". Capable people quietly disengaging under sustained load. Alongside a premium on AI fluency, defined not as prompt-writing but as the ability to question AI outputs. The Harvard Business Impact 2026 study of over 1,100 leaders found something sharper still: the foundational skills we assume predict success like critical thinking, AI literacy and domain knowledge were not clear indicators of who actually performed. What mattered was faster, more experiential learning and the harder-to-measure behaviours that turn knowledge into results.
Where the discipline lives
This is where being meticulous or rigorous pays off. It’s a critical factor in one of the High Performance Mindset frameworks I use. Rigour is the discipline of pushing the limits and going the extra mile. When your AI tool has done the first draft how do you challenge it? Insight is also a critical factor. For example, a seller's judgement about a buyer's real situation is exactly the value AI cannot replicate. And it sits squarely in the Leading Self framework I use: a critical foundation before you lead anyone else.
Last month I finished eleven weeks on Estu Global's Operationalising AI Bootcamp with sixty other small-business leaders, building real tools on real projects. The lesson wasn't technical. It was getting comfortable with being uncomfortable. AI amplifies your creativity and ingenuity. It doesn't replace your human intelligence, and it certainly doesn't replace the decision about whether its answer is any good.
What now
This week, take one thing AI created for you. An email, a report or a new workflow. And interrogate it properly before you use it. What's confidently wrong? What's missing? What would you never have said? That gap is your value.
The tool will keep getting cheaper. Your judgement won't. Which are you investing in?
If you want to follow-up and talk about any of these topics please email me on mark@headsupandfreer.com and we can arrange a call.
The research behind this:
(1) HBR, "AI Is Changing What Employers Want from New Hires" (Jul 2026): AI raises the threshold for expertise
(2) MIT Sloan Management Review (Jul 2026, drawing on Thomas H. Davenport): human judgement as competitive advantage
(3) McKinsey, 2026 Global B2B Pulse (~4,000 decision-makers, 13 countries): workflow, not tools
(4) DDI 2026 Leadership Trends ("quiet cracking", AI fluency): Harvard Business Impact 2026 (1,139 leaders)
Leadership Frameworks in focus that I use with clients:
(1) High Performance Mindset (Rigour) ·
(2) Insight, Influence & Trust
(3) 3-Stage Leadership (Leading Self)
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